Still Irrational But Not Exuberant

A little over a year ago, I posted Irrational But Not Exuberant.   Today, that point of view is still true.   To many people, the market is ready for a correction or even a major decline.   Given all the uncertainty, there are no fundamental reasons for the market to be this high or even go higher.

However, I still see virtually no signs of exuberance.   In fact, I see many signs of anti-exuberance: people in all cash, people in bear market funds, people scare of investing in stocks.   This is still the most unloved bull market ever.

And the market continues to defy logic and grind up slowly to new highs.

Is this time different?   Probably not.  The bull market will end and become a bear market again in the future.   I just don't think it will be before the end of this year.

If this bull market lasts a little over 12 more months, it will be the longest bull market in US history, exceeding the October 1990 to March 2000 bull market of 113 months.   Given the lack of exuberance, there is still a good chance of this bull market lasting that much longer.

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This is not financial or investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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