Preparing for a Really Ugly Market Downturn

While I don't know when the markets will turn down significantly, I want to be prepared for the inevitable.   Here are my two ugly market scenarios:

The first scenario, which some may expect, is the market will fall quickly, 10, 20, or maybe 30+% , over a couple months and then recover.  This scenario is usually painful, but short lived.

The second scenario, which others may expect,  is the market falls slowly over 6 months to two years. This scenario is usually painful for those expecting the first scenario and stay in the market or put more fund in while waiting for the rebound. Since this scenario extends the pain for a longer period, this scenario is particularly ugly.

Over the past few years, we've reduced our equity exposure from about 50% to about 25%.  This has been done primarily by reducing our exposure to my company stock by 66%.   So this has reduced our risk in two ways.

So if the stock market falls significantly, our downside will be about 25% of the market indices, which gives me comfort.   Of course, if the market rises significantly, we will only experience 25% of the gain in market indices.  However, given the current uncertainty of the markets, it is a trade off that I am happy to make, so that I can sleep better at night.

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This is not financial or investing advice. Please consult a professional advisor.

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